Recession-proof your PM career [in 2 steps]

A recession 📉 is looming. It’s all over the news. And that means impending layoffs.

Companies prepare in advance for a recession.

I bet your company is preparing right now. Are you?

Did you notice that PM roles are among the first to be cut at many companies? This is especially true if you work in a tier 2 or 3 company (one that has not embraced Product Management).

I once heard an executive describe the PM role as a support function for the two “book-ends” of the business: Sales & Engineering.

In such companies, PMs are not empowered to own the Product. They are relegated to delivery and support activity, rather than value-based work.

PMs who work in “feature factories” are more likely to be perceived as performing low-value activities.

So what can you do about it?

Here’s a play (that you can follow through on) to bulletproof yourself 💪🏼.

Ready to get started? Find a quiet place, get a ☕, and block out an hour on your calendar.

Step 1: The Short-Term Play (15 min) 🪞

First, get honest about your risk. How likely are you to be laid off if a recession hits? Ask yourself:

• How was my last performance review?

• What are my superpowers, and am I actually using them in my current role?

• Is my company at risk? Look at the financials and their history of layoffs. Some industries get hit harder, e.g. retail, consumer goods, travel & hospitality, automotive, real estate & financial services.

• How critical is my work to the company’s survival? Am I in a product area that drives revenue or cost savings?

• Is the PM role valued here? Or does it take a backseat to Engineering & Sales?

Action: Score yourself honestly. Go with gut-feel, or use this quick scorecard. Rate each factor 1 (safe) to 3 (at risk):

1. Last performance review — strong (1) · mixed (2) · poor (3)

2. Company health — growing (1) · flat (2) · cutting costs / past layoffs (3)

3. Industry exposure — defensive (1) · neutral (2) · cyclical (3)

4. Link to money — I directly drive revenue or savings (1) · indirectly (2) · not really (3)

5. How PM is valued — I own the product (1) · partial ownership (2) · feature factory (3)

Add it up: 5–7 = low risk · 8–11 = medium · 12–15 = high.

Step 2: The Long-Term Play (the rest of the hour) 🛡️

Your score tells you how exposed you are. Step 2 builds the moat, so that whatever the score, you become the PM nobody wants to lose. Pick the moves that close your biggest gaps.

1) Move from output to outcomes. Stop measuring yourself in features shipped. Attach a number to your work: revenue influenced, cost saved, churn reduced, support tickets cut. Write down the dollar figure next to your last three projects. If you can’t, that’s your first problem to fix.

2) Own a metric that matters. Volunteer to own a revenue, activation, or retention number. The moment a recession hits, the person attached to a growth or savings metric is the one who’s protected.

3) Make your wins visible. Quiet excellence gets cut. Start a “brag doc” today and a short monthly wins note to your manager. When the budget conversation happens, you want your impact already documented, not reconstructed under pressure.

4) Build a rare skill. Pick one hard-to-replace capability and go deep: pricing, data fluency, a specific domain, or shipping with AI. Generalists are easy to replace. Specialists who also see the whole board are not.

5) Bank internal allies. Recessions are decided in rooms you’re not in. Make sure sales, engineering, support, and at least one exec would fight to keep you. Help them win this quarter and they’ll remember.

6) Quietly keep your options open. Not panic-applying, just staying ready. Refresh your LinkedIn, keep a portfolio of wins, and answer a recruiter coffee now and then. The best leverage in a layoff is having somewhere else to go.

A recession is mostly out of your control. Your value isn’t.

Run Step 1 to see where you stand, then spend the next quarter quietly closing the gaps in Step 2. Do it now, while it’s optional, not later, when it’s an emergency.

The PMs who survive downturns aren’t the busiest. They’re the ones whose absence would cost the company money. Become that person.

See you next week. 👋🏼